Sunday, January 14, 2024

Why Do The Gullible Folks In The Right Wing Echo Chamber Think That A Regional Winter Cold Snap Proves That Global Warming Is A Hoax?

We're in the midst of winter and much of the US is in the middle of a cold snap. Shocking, right? Yet, as typically happens during a regional cold snap the right wing echo chamber is filled with posts claiming that frigid weather during winter and rescheduled NFL games proves global warming to be a hoax. These claims ignore that the portion of the U.S. hit by this cold snap is a fraction of global surface area. Moreover, it is common for localized incursions of Arctic air masses to be compensated for by warmer-than-normal conditions in other areas of the mid-latitudes.Frankly, anyone that is paying attention should realize that weather is so variable that regional US cold temperature records are commonplace even while locations south of the equator are sizzling. For reference, from January 2020 through November 2022, 91% of 245 locations measured had more record heat than record cold

Here's a news flash, when the US suffers through what is likely to be the hottest summer in recorded history during 2024 with hot temperature records being set throughout the country, there will almost certainly be cold records set during the winter season south of the equator. However, it seems probable that globally the hot temperature records will be about 3 times as frequent as the cold termperature records.

If along the lines of climate science deniers, I was to cherry pick a variable data set to make an outrageous claim, it would be that sea level rise has gone parabolic. Check out the chart below. The increase in sea level between May 4 and September 29 is a bit frightening. If the 4.7 mm (0.36 inches) increase in sea level rise is extrapolated out to a full year, that's about 0.8 inches of sea level rise per year and over 8 inches per decade. Whoa, sunny day flooding is already becoming a problem. Eight more inches of sea level rise by 2034 would convert sunny day flooding from a major nuisance into a coastal real estate catastrophe. Even if there is another 0.8 inches of sea level rise in 2024, it will be a problem for low lying coastal cities such as Charleston.

However, a close review of the chart indicates that upward spikes occurred in 2011-2012 and 2014-2015 and were both followed by declines in sea level. Thus, reversion to the mean of about 1/8th inch of sea level rise per year seems at least as likely as a continued rise of 0.8 inch a year. 



In conclusion,  the right wing echo chamber is very effective at amplifying climate disinformation. They cherry pick data, utilize obscure data sources, and make a big deal of the wildest faulty predictions made by individual climate researchers which never obtained widescale acceptance. On the other hand, climate science researchers don't need to do any cherry picking as the results of a warming planet are abundant.

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