Thursday, December 22, 2011

Complacency About the Coming Depression Seems Impossible to Shake

The last time I attempted to warn friends that the U.S. stock market was in for a big decline, due to the declining housing market back in 2007, I was mostly ignored. The fact that I got that call correct has not gained me much credibility though. The reaction of my friends to warnings that an economic depression will start in 2012 is basically for them to ask "when did you start wearing a tin foil hat". I find it frustrating that my warnings to prepare for an economic collapse lead to my being considered a bit of a wacko. Time will tell if I am correct again, but no one reading this post can state that I did not warn them to be prepared for dark times ahead.

It seems remarkable to me that most of my friends have such short memories in regard to how badly their investment portfolios and retirement accounts got crushed by the stock market declines in 2000 and 2007. In both cases the S&P 500 declined by over 45% from peak to trough. I agree with Mark Faber's prediction that those that do not take steps to protect themselves from the coming decline "will be lucky to still have 50% of their wealth in 5 years’ time".

As the year end approaches, and I try to make my case for preparing for an upcoming collapse,  it seems like a good opportunity to provide a summary of the best posts from this blog:

  1. Predictions for 2012 From Economic Doom or Boom
  2. How Long Until A Populist Government in Europe Renounces Sovereign Debt?
  3. U.S. Economy At Risk From Self Fulfilling Prophecies of European Recession
  4. Is Holding Treasury Auctions on 39 Separate Days During The 1st Quarter Risky Business?
  5. Republican Politicians Are Confusing Antipathy For Obama with Support For No New Taxes
  6. Do 2012 Economic Forecasts for U.S. Foolishly Discount High Cost of Oil?
  7. Did Ross Perot Prove That American Voters Can Actually Do Budget Deficit Math?
  8. Beware of Little Old Ladies With Signs - Why The Tea Party Should Compromise on NO New Taxes
  9. The Impact of Layoffs on Stock Prices - It Is All About the Spin
  10. Are So Called "Catastrophe Portfolios" Sufficiently Leveraged For A Deep Crisis?

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