Thursday, January 19, 2012

Does Chris Christie Really Only Have A 0.3% Likelihood of Being The Republican Nominee?

Over at InTrade, a wager that Chris Christie will be the Republican nominee for President is only projected at a 0.3% chance of occurring. Interestingly, the odds of Christie being the V.P. nominee are listed at 28%.

Given that the Florida primary is winner take all the delegates, it seems likely that Mitt Romney will wrap up the nomination quickly. However, Romney has so much baggage and is so unpopular among social conservatives that if he doesn't deliver a knockout blow to the other candidates in Florida, he may be in for a real dog fight the rest of the way.

While a brokered Republican convention seems unlikely, it is definitely not out of the realm of possibility. Given how little enthusiasm Romney generates among Republicans, he might be in real trouble if there is a brokered convention. Based on the polling data, a majority of Republicans would welcome a fresh candidate that does not carry so much baggage that can easily be attacked by the Obama campaign. Today's headlines from the NY Post about Romney's Offshore $tash is yet another piece of baggage (although probably not as damaging as an ex -wife claiming a 6 year affair).

If there is a brokered Republican convention, my assumption is that Christie has a reasonably good chance of being selected. It seems almost a certainty that Romney will have the highest delegate count going into the convention. If it becomes obvious that he cannot gain the 1,144 delegates required for nomination, it seems likely that he would support his most prominent backer, Chris Christy.

Do I think there is a high probability of Chris Christy being the Republican nominee for President? Not really, but I would rate it a heck of a lot higher than 0.3%.

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