Monday, February 24, 2014

2015 Will Be The Hottest Year In Recorded History - The Prediction That Will Be Hard to Refute

The climate change debate is muddled due to the decade long pause in warming of the earth's surface temperature. Most climate models wildly overstated the warming that would occur during the most recent decade. The long pause in the warming of the earth's surface temperature has played a big role in climate researchers' utter failure to convince U.S. voters that "climate change can now be considered another weapon of mass destruction" (a much disputed line from a John Kerry speech). Further, much of the debate between climate change skeptics and "warmists" has been  challenging to interpret or evaluate.

However, a number of climate researchers have made a prediction that should be easy for everyone to interpret, and that is that the next El Nino will lead to the hottest year in recorded history. According to climate researcher James Hanson, "It appears that there is substantial likelihood of an El Niño beginning in 2014, and as a result a probable record global temperature in 2014 or 2015". Dr. Michael Mann has indicated that "perhaps that will put to rest once and for all the silly notion, promoted by climate change contrarians, that climate change has ‘stopped’.”

As shown in the chart below, years in which El Nino conditions are present tend to be hotter than La Nina years. And Dr. Michael Ventrice suggests "We are seeing increasing evidence of an upcoming change in the Pacific Ocean base state that favors the development of a moderate-to-strong El Niño event this Spring/Summer

It would be nice to think that the results of the "hottest year in recorded history" prediction will provide some resolution in the debate about whether global warning and climate change are occurring. The outcome of this prediction should certainly provide a bit clarity in regard to the global warming debate. Maybe there will be some change in the makeup of the Global Warming's Six Americas as defined in an analysis provided by the Yale School of Environmental Studies
  • The Alarmed - 16%
  • The Concerned - 27%
  • The Cautious - 23%
  • The Disengaged - 5%
  • The Doubtful - 12%
  • The Dismissive - 15%

Little action will be taken on a global basis to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases until there is consensus on the importance of doing so. The outcome of the prediction that 2015 will be the hottest in recorded history maybe be a milestone event in the resolution of the debate on global warming and climate change.

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