Probability Only 0.7 Percent of Record Global Temperatures In 3 Consecutive Years

The slow pace of climate change is masked by the huge variability of weather. Thus, climate change is not readily perceptible as it has so little impact from year to year compared to the variability of weather. As an extreme example, Chicago experienced an 83-degree temperature span between the 1982 December 21st 62-degree high and the low of minus 21 on the same date in 1983. This variability of weather on an annual basis is certainly one of the factors behind the failure of many Americans to recognize that global warming is changing the global climate.

Another factor that contributes to the apathy regarding the consequences is that so many of the articles about climate change focus on the cataclysmic effects that can be expected in 2100 (83 years in the future).  While these cataclysmic predictions support attention grabbing headlines, for those that are skeptical about climate science/global warming, the conjectures about impacts that may occur long after their deaths is likely little more than white noise.

However, a recently published study contained a metric that is challenging to ignore. During 2014, 2015, and 2016, each year set a new record for hottest year in recorded history. The likelihood of three consecutive record-breaking years happening any time since 2000 is no more than 0.7 percent. This remarkable string of record breaking hot years refutes the claims that "the climate is always changing". The fingerprints of human-caused climate change are all over the string of record hot years.

A greater focus on the 0.7 percent chance of 3 consecutive record breaking hot years is one of the most compelling metrics available to combat the apathy and skepticism of climate science doubters. Amplifying the communication of this metric is a quick and easy way to get across an important and straight forward to understand aspect of the climate change message.