Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Another Idiotic Global Warming Post on Townhall Authored by Matt Vespa

Here is a news flash: the impacts of climate change are not linear on an annual basis. New records are not being set for every impact of climate change every year. While the impacts of climate change are close to being linear on a decade long time frame, they are variable on an annual basis.

Yet it is easily predictable that any time there is a slight bounce back in results, some statistically illiterate climate science denier will claim that this shows that climate scientists predictions are "straight trash". As a specific example, Matt Vespa uses the fact that there was a slight bounce back in Arctic sea ice last month as support for his climate science denial claims. Somehow, he managed to meld the fact that Arctic sea ice area was up versus the previous year, the Jakobshavn is growing, and 2013 was a calm hurricane year into a case for denying climate science. And as incredibly thin as this support for his denialism is, it becomes completely ludicrous when taking into account that since the post was published, Arctic sea ice has declined so rapidly that it is now in record low territory for this time of year.

Arctic sea Ice extent and global sea level both provide results that are variable on an annual basis. But, as the charts below show, the downward trend in Arctic sea Ice and the upward trend in global sea level are in long term patterns. 

Arctic sea Ice has declined every decade during the satellite era. It is currently the lowest in recorded history for this time of year.(the red line)

Arctic Sea Ice Extent By Decade


The rise in global sea level has been erratic, but over time frames of multiple years has been consistently moving upward by a rate of 3.3 mm per year. The 2011 decline in sea level certainly did not indicate that "global warming has been cancelled" (the absurd title of Mr. Vespa's post). And as sea level rises, sunny day flooding is becoming an increasingly severe problem.

Global Sea Level Rise

Climate science deniers post frequently to their echo chamber of like minded folks. With the need to come up with new content, the authors grasp at any piece of evidence that provides support for their case,  They make their case by cherry picking dates, using the variability of climate change effects, and endlessly repeating false claims. Mr. Vespa trots out the hoary claim that "In the 1970s, the Earth was supposed to be undergoing a cooling period that could see periods of glaciation breakout across the Northern Hemisphere." This claim has been as thoroughly debunked as the claims made promoting the health benefits of menthol filtered cigarettes.

With all the clear cut evidence of the impacts of climate change, including 500 year floods on every inhabited continent, drought/flood whiplash, coral bleaching, disappearing arctic sea ice, and a wavy jet stream due to a warming arctic, it makes one wonder how much longer it will take before climate science deniers finally lose all vestiges of credibility. Sadly, the link between cigarette smoking and lung cancer was established in 1939. However, the turning point in the recognition of health harms from smoking did not occur until 1964, 25 years later. It's taking even longer for climate science to be widely accepted by the public 

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