The monthly US trade deficit will be reported tomorrow (1/5/23). And based on past results, as long as it comes in reasonably close to the forecast, it probably will not have much immediate impact on the price of silver. The median forecast is for it to be US$63 billion, down from the previous trade deficit of $78 billion. And of course this decrease can be spun as great news. But to paraphrase Everett Dirksen, $63 billion here, $63 billion there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money".
As long as the US dollar remains the world's "trusted" reserve currency, the trade deficit does not seem to be a concern of the markets. But if the US dollar starts getting dumped, the massive trade deficit is going to be ever harder to sustain. And the dual deficits of trade and US goverment spending are leading to ever greater dollar debasement
Thus, while based on recent results, it does not seem like the trade deficit is going to have much of a short term impact on the price of gold and silver, on a long term basis, it seems likely to be supportive of higher prices..
Trade Deficit By Year - 2017 thru 2020
U.S. trade balance for 2020 was $651B, a 9.21% increase from 2019.
U.S. trade balance for 2019 was $596B, a 0.01% increase from 2018.
U.S. trade balance for 2018 was $596B, a 10.42% increase from 2017.
U.S. trade balance for 2017 was $540B, a 6.65% increase from 2016.
Source - Macrotrends.net
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