Magical Growth In US Construction Employment According To BLS

Here is a number that does not pass the sniff test. 

According to a US Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Construction employment grew by 24,000 in February, in line with the average monthly growth of 20,000 over the prior 6 months".  

The question becomes how much of the overstated number is due to: 1) crappy survey methodolgy; 2) a flawed seasonal adjustment factor; or 3) a ridiculous assumption about the "birth" of new constuction firms.

Does it seem likely that construction employment is growing when office construction is in a death spiral due to work from home, retail constuction is stunted by Internet shopping, and new home construction is being blunted by lack of affordability due to 7% mortgage rates. It seems instructive to review construction job openings. Construction job opening plummeted by a shocking 240,000 in January (the most recent report) according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.  

And I'm not the only one that questions the BLS employment numbers. On December 12 the Philadelphia Fed’s new experimental algo predicted that the BLS had overreported tolal jobs growth by 1.1 million.

Time will tell whether the BLS releases more magical employment numbers in the upcoming months.

More US Dollar Debasement. The US Government Ran Up A $262 Billion Deficit In February. Up from $217 Billion Year Ago

The US debt continues to explode higher. February deficit was $45 billion dollars higher than the year ago February deficit. Receipts were down and outflows were up

February receipts - $262 billion vs $290 billion previous year

February outflows - $525 billion vs $506 billion previous year

Deficits by month so far this fiscal year

October - $88 billion vs $165 billion previous year (only month with a bigger deficit last year)

November - $248 billion vs $191 billion previous year

December - $85 billion vs $21billion previous year

January - $39 billion deficit vs $119 billion surplus previous year

February - $262 billion vs $217 billion previous year

Fiscal 2023 Year To Date Deficit After 5 Months - $723 billion

So that makes 5 consecutive months in which the deficit has been $45 billion or more larger that it was in the previous year (fiscal 2022). And in both this month and in November, the outlays were essentially double the receipts. 

Would you be surprised if the US hits the debt ceiling even earlier that Janet Yellon is projecting?