Here is a number that does not pass the sniff test.
According to a US Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Construction employment grew by 24,000 in February, in line with the average monthly growth of 20,000 over the prior 6 months".
The question becomes how much of the overstated number is due to: 1) crappy survey methodolgy; 2) a flawed seasonal adjustment factor; or 3) a ridiculous assumption about the "birth" of new constuction firms.
Does it seem likely that construction employment is growing when office construction is in a death spiral due to work from home, retail constuction is stunted by Internet shopping, and new home construction is being blunted by lack of affordability due to 7% mortgage rates. It seems instructive to review construction job openings. Construction job opening plummeted by a shocking 240,000 in January (the most recent report) according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
And I'm not the only one that questions the BLS employment numbers. On December 12 the Philadelphia Fed’s new experimental algo predicted that the BLS had overreported tolal jobs growth by 1.1 million.
Time will tell whether the BLS releases more magical employment numbers in the upcoming months.
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