Spineless, Shortsighted Republicans Are Going To Get Wiped Out In 2026 Midterm Congressional Elections

The President's party has lost seats in the House of Representatives in each of the last 5 mid term elections.  According to Poynter "Political scientists call this the “thermostatic” effect — voters adjust how they vote, as they would a home thermostat. The common pattern of voters from the opposition party being more energized to vote is closely related; it stems from anger serving as a stronger motivator to vote than contentment." 

Here are the results by election: 

This trend will be exacerbated by Trump's unpopularity and by the Republican's in the House: a) failing to take a stand during the confirmation process for his awful Cabinet nominations; b) refusing to push back on his stupid tariff actions, c) taking no action on Trump's Executive Orders; and d) remaining silent in regard to the plethora of Trump's other unhinged actions and statements. The Republican party now owns the actions of Donald Trump, Robert Kennedy Jr, Kash Patel, Pete Hegseth, and Elon Musk. 

A significant reason for the failure to stand up to Trump is the threat of being primaried by a MAGA candidate. These threats puts the Republican control of the House in a no win situation. If a moderate Republican Congressman stands up to Trump and then gets primaried by a MAGA candidate, it would be a tough election. But by not standing up to Trump, these Republican Congressman will be incredibly vulnerable in the general election due to Trump's unpopularity. And further, if a sitting Republican Congressman loses in the primary to a MAGA candidate, many of Trump's selections will get trounced in the general.

How many seats in the House will the Republicans lose. Much depends how things go between now and November 2026 midterm election? But I will be surprised if control of the House does not revert back to the Democratic party.

Read More:

DOGE Could Have Been A Huge Win, But Sledgehammer Approach May Lead To Nasty Blowback

Trump's Economy: Higher Inflation, Reduced GDP Growth, and a Larger Deficit

DOGE Could Have Been A Huge Win, But Sledgehammer Approach May Lead To Nasty Blowback

The Federal budget cutting that Donald Trump and Elon Musk unleashed could have been a huge win. DOGE would likely remain popular if it focused on the following: 1) cutting fraud and waste; 2) eliminating DEI spending: 3) a hiring freeze, and 4) retirement buyouts. But the sledgehammer approach DOGE has taken will likely turn a win into a loss. The downside of indiscriminate actions such as the mass firing of Federal employees with less than 1-2 years of experience (probationary employees that don't have Civil Service protection) may give Democratic Congressional candidates potent ammunition in 2026.

Time will tell what the downside of the sledgehammer approach to budget cutting will be. Here are a sampling of some of the issues that may appear in 2026 Democratic attack ads:

1) IRS cuts during tax season may lead to slower refunds

2) FAA cuts may lead to more flight delays

3) Forest Service cuts may lead to more damaging forest fires

4) FDA cuts may lead to slower approvals of life saving drugs. 

5) Energy Department cuts may lead to even slower approvals of project approvals that could reduce power outages

6) Health and Human Services cuts may lead to fewer services for transgender people (about 1% of the US adult population)

And in addition to the above, an unexpected black swan event(s) are likely to develop that will have a negative impact. There will be lots of potential ammunition for Democratic attack ads

Beyond the negative impact of reduced Federal government service on a broad swath of the US population from the firing of probationary employees, the human cost to these fired individuals is beyond measure. While some will find new jobs quickly, others will be totally screwed by their loss of income. Expect their heart wrenching stories to be featured in attack ads. 

Conclusion

A odds of blue wave in the 2026 Congressional elections seems reasonably high. And while DOGE cost cutting currently enjoys significant popularity, my guess is that the sledgehammer approach may be a big factor in Dems being able to generate a strong turn out of motivated voters.

Trump's Economy: Higher Inflation, Reduced GDP Growth, and a Larger Deficit

Higher Inflation

Listening to an interview this morning with Trump's senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, Peter Navarro, it provided an example of how Trump is surrounding himself with sycophants that are unlikely to push back on his obsession with tariffs. Trump and Navarro are going through mental gymnastics to avoid admitting that tariffs are a tax that will have an inflationary impact is on the US economy.

Navarro and Trump bring up three examples to make a case for the benefits of imposing tariffs on US imports. 

1) From 1798 to 1913 tariffs accounted for over 50% of US Federal Revenue. Sure, using a precedent from the horse and buggy era is convincing.

2) President Trump speaks fondly of William McKinley, the 25th U.S. president who was a strong advocate for tariffs.  But did the McKinley tariff of 1890 work? It was meant to protect domestic industries, but raised prices and became extremely unpopular. It led to the Democrats gaining the majority in the House, ousting 83 Republicans, and overturning the tariffs in 1894. 

3) Navarro stated that Trump's first term tariffs did not raise inflation. While most economists agree with this conclusion, the American Economic Association takes a negative view about the tariffs

In the wake of this increase in trade protection, the United States experienced substantial increases in the prices of intermediates and final goods, dramatic changes to its supply-chain network, reductions in availability of imported varieties, and the complete pass-through of the tariffs into domestic prices of imported goods. Therefore, the full incidence of the tariffs has fallen on domestic consumers and importers so far, and our estimates imply a reduction in aggregate US real income of $1.4 billion per month by the end of 2018. 

The first Trump administration tariffs were targeted and only applied to products valued at about $380 billion in 2018 and 2019 and generated approximately $80 billion in revenue (not even enough revenue to cover two weeks of the US Federal deficit). 

But while the tariff revenue Trump plans to raise is a moving target, it seems appropriate to guess his broad based tariffs will be a multiple of the revenue of his first term's tariffs.

According to the Tax Foundation, historical evidence and recent studies show that tariffs are taxes that raise prices and reduce available quantities of goods and services for US businesses and consumers, which results in lower income, reduced employment, and lower economic output.

Not surprisingly, the supporters of tariffs fail to mention the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, the most recent example of the US implementing hefty tariffs. It significantly raised tariffs on a variety of imported goods in an order to protect American industries and agriculture. However, it had profound negative consequences on international trade. One result was that Europeans retaliated with their own protective tariffs, leading to a decline in global trade. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs deepened the economic collapse of the Great Depression. Hmmm, what are the chances of our trading partners launching retaliatory tariffs or of reducing travel to the US.

Reduced GDP Growth

US deficit spending has been an important factor in the strength of the US economy. While it is critical to rein in the huge deficit, the chainsaw that Musk and the DOGE commission are welding may have a short term negative impact on the  US economy. The spending and employment cuts are coming prior to the other actions that could serve as a counter weight (regulation cutting, reduced taxes, and drill baby drill).

Larger Deficit

Trump's proposed tax cuts could reduce Federal revenue by as much as a trillion dollars per year even if the Tax Cut and Jobs Act is extended. Check out the chart from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget for details on Trump's proposed SALT Relief, and cuts to taxes on Tips, Overtime Pay, Social Security, and Domestic Production.

Conclusion

The stock market has moved higher since Trump's election. Time will tell if the the stock and bond market continue to gain between now and the Congressional elections in 2026. And trying to predict inflation, GDP growth, and the US deficit following the 2026 elections, particularly if Democrats gain control of the House, seems beyond the capabilities of my crystal ball.