The President's party has lost seats in the House of Representatives in each of the last 5 mid term elections. According to Poynter "Political scientists call this the “thermostatic” effect — voters adjust how they vote, as they would a home thermostat. The common pattern of voters from the opposition party being more energized to vote is closely related; it stems from anger serving as a stronger motivator to vote than contentment."
Here are the results by election:
This trend will be exacerbated by Trump's unpopularity and by the Republican's in the House: a) failing to take a stand during the confirmation process for his awful Cabinet nominations; b) refusing to push back on his stupid tariff actions, c) taking no action on Trump's Executive Orders; and d) remaining silent in regard to the plethora of Trump's other unhinged actions and statements. The Republican party now owns the actions of Donald Trump, Robert Kennedy Jr, Kash Patel, Pete Hegseth, and Elon Musk.
A significant reason for the failure to stand up to Trump is the threat of being primaried by a MAGA candidate. These threats puts the Republican control of the House in a no win situation. If a moderate Republican Congressman stands up to Trump and then gets primaried by a MAGA candidate, it would be a tough election. But by not standing up to Trump, these Republican Congressman will be incredibly vulnerable in the general election due to Trump's unpopularity. And further, if a sitting Republican Congressman loses in the primary to a MAGA candidate, many of Trump's selections will get trounced in the general.
How many seats in the House will the Republicans lose. Much depends how things go between now and November 2026 midterm election? But I will be surprised if control of the House does not revert back to the Democratic party.
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