DOGE Could Have Been A Huge Win, But Sledgehammer Approach May Lead To Nasty Blowback

The Federal budget cutting that Donald Trump and Elon Musk unleashed could have been a huge win. DOGE would likely remain popular if it focused on the following: 1) cutting fraud and waste; 2) eliminating DEI spending: 3) a hiring freeze, and 4) retirement buyouts. But the sledgehammer approach DOGE has taken will likely turn a win into a loss. The downside of indiscriminate actions such as the mass firing of Federal employees with less than 1-2 years of experience (probationary employees that don't have Civil Service protection) may give Democratic Congressional candidates potent ammunition in 2026.

Time will tell what the downside of the sledgehammer approach to budget cutting will be. Here are a sampling of some of the issues that may appear in 2026 Democratic attack ads:

1) IRS cuts during tax season may lead to slower refunds

2) FAA cuts may lead to more flight delays

3) Forest Service cuts may lead to more damaging forest fires

4) FDA cuts may lead to slower approvals of life saving drugs. 

5) Energy Department cuts may lead to even slower approvals of project approvals that could reduce power outages

6) Health and Human Services cuts may lead to fewer services for transgender people (about 1% of the US adult population)

And in addition to the above, an unexpected black swan event(s) are likely to develop that will have a negative impact. There will be lots of potential ammunition for Democratic attack ads

Beyond the negative impact of reduced Federal government service on a broad swath of the US population from the firing of probationary employees, the human cost to these fired individuals is beyond measure. While some will find new jobs quickly, others will be totally screwed by their loss of income. Expect their heart wrenching stories to be featured in attack ads. 

Conclusion

A odds of blue wave in the 2026 Congressional elections seems reasonably high. And while DOGE cost cutting currently enjoys significant popularity, my guess is that the sledgehammer approach may be a big factor in Dems being able to generate a strong turn out of motivated voters.